Replaying through the PC port of Sen no Kiseki, i’ve found myself giving more attention to events that had little-to-no follow-through, or events that can be seen as being more than meets the eye. One such instance occurs in Chapter 3, when the members of Class VII participate in a field study in the Nord Highlands.

I think events there were more than just a simple plan to make two countries get at each other’s throats; I think the events in Nord were meant to birth a new Dominion.

While we’ve only been offered snippets of the ILF up to this point, it’s easy to say that they were the main enemies of this chapter, with Gideon leading the charge. During this chapter, both Calvard and the Empire come under attack from unknown sources. The true culprits ended up being jaeger dropouts hired by the ILF to instigate the incident. These events seem pretty straightforward, no?

What if these events were actually for another reason entirely?

In Sen no Kiseki III, we’ve seen Gaius’ new character design, and it shares a resemblance with the outfits of the Graalsritter that we’ve become acquainted with thus far. Given his relationship with Dominion Barkhorn and the character design, it’s assumed that as of Sen no Kiseki III he’s become a squire in the Graalsritter. With the quest in Sen no Kiseki II, we learn more about Gauis’ relationship with Barkhorn (it’s solid), and that they seem to be on great terms. As was pointed out in Sora no Kiseki 3rd, Dominion have the ability to sense others capable of manifesting a stigma. Assuming Gaius is one such individual with said potential, i’d like to propose my theory: The events during the field study in Nord were actually the events that were supposed to occur to make Gaius manifest a stigma.

We’ve covered the ILF and hired jaegers, but i’d like to cover some of the other people present. Erebonia and Calvard both have armies stationed here. With the conflict manufactured to draw them into conflict, the peaceful land of Nord would erupt into death and destruction, turning Gaius’ beautiful homeland into a zone of conflict. While Gaius is usually a calm guy, he always gets emotionally outraged when someone even mentions anything about the destruction of Nord. Two examples are Gideon’s speech at the end of chapter 3 in Sen I, and Bleublanc’s speech at the end of Act 1-2 in Sen II (“The one thing that could make it [Nord] more breathtaking is the moment where it is robbed of its own beauty.”). In both games there have been instances of Nord’s peace being at risk while Gaius is present. Clearly we know what would be a mentally burdening/traumatic event in his life. As for the artifact, who knows since it didn’t happen.

Two Ironbloods also make an appearance in this chapter. Millium appears to be doing surveillance, and once she finally works with Class VII under the guise of capturing those responsible for the attack on the watchtower. Her presence is understandable, especially if it’s to keep the border safe from Calvard. Given Osborne’s eerily accurate foresight when it comes to planning for events like this, her presence makes sense. Not only does she report on the events, but she also reports when the events happen. With the timing of the incident properly reported, Lechter shows up not a full day later to mediate the entire incident and prevent war from breaking out in Nord. Odd that the man with the skills to power through any mediation would magically show up at the border and clear everything up so quickly.

We’ve been told that the church has restrictions on their movements in Erebonia thanks to Thomas’ dialogue in Sen II’s Black Records cutscene with Thomas and Rosine. We also know that Barkhorn is active in Erebonia. Osborne has a vested interest in restricting their means to act in the Empire. If Osborne knew that the conflict in Nord would awaken a stigma in Gaius (given his insane accuracy to predict and plan for the future (almost like he had something to help him with this…)), it would make sense that he’d already planned to resolve the incident without…incident, thus stopping the stigmatization. Osborne would already know that Class VII with Gaius would be in Nord at those exact moments thanks to info from Rufus, who is a board member. What better way to keep stifling the influence of the Church than to prevent them from gaining another Dominion?

A minor spin-off of this, but it’s been speculated that Lechter could be an Anguis. Assuming this to be true, as Ouroboros and the Church are at odds anyways, Lechter fixing the situation without a stigma manifesting would be a double-win for him since he’d be fulfilling a task important to both his masters. Yet more motivation for another player in all of this. Given that Bleublanc was already following Class VII as of Celdic’s field study, it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to say that Ouroboros was also likely monitoring this situation.

These events and people in mind, I think that there was a clear opportunity for the worst to happen to Nord, and for Gaius to manifest a stigma. Without the intervention of Lechter, battle definitely would’ve broken out in Nord.

So i’ve covered major players in this chapter, motivations of most individuals involved, events that actually played out, and how something going wrong here could’ve meant the birth of a new Dominion, all of which were effortlessly prevented by what I perceive as careful foresight and counter-planning. At first I believed only a few of the things to be coincidence, but once I started considering the roles of everyone involved, the timely appearance of Lechter, how Gaius appears to be a squire in Sen III, and the clear benefits for the party that interceded the event, I really do think it’s possible that the events in Nord during the field study would’ve originally played out with Nord torn by war and Gaius becoming a Dominion. Whether those were maliciously planned or were just supposed to happen originally, who can say?